Premortem Thinking

QUOTE

Sun Tzu once said…

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”

(Chinese general and strategist)

CONCEPT

Premortem Thinking

Premortem thinking is a way to spot problems *before* they happen.

Instead of asking, “What could go wrong?”, you imagine that your project or plan has already failed—and then ask, “What caused it to fail?”

By pretending the worst has already happened, people feel more free to speak honestly about their concerns. It helps teams think ahead, uncover hidden risks, and fix weak spots before they become real.

It’s like doing an autopsy—but in advance—so you don’t have to do one after things fall apart.

STORY

Less Dread … More Bread?

Ron Shaich was on a beach in Mexico in late December 2010, restless despite the surf. For 15 straight years, Panera Bread had posted sales gains, yet the founder couldn’t shake a gut feeling that the café chain’s future was in question.

Instead of drafting resolutions, Shaich opened his notebook and staged a “personal premortem.”

He pictured himself, decades older, explaining Panera’s collapse to his grandchildren. *Why did it die?* he asked. The answers that poured out were brutal: long lines that bled lunch-hour traffic, rising labor costs, the coming smartphone order revolution, and investors who would strip R&D if quarterly comps slipped.

That 12-page thought experiment became the blueprint for Panera 2.0.

Within two years, Shaich was spending $42 million on in-store kiosks, mobile ordering, and rapid-pickup shelves. Analysts scoffed—it cut short-term earnings by 24%—but the premortem had already forced the team to confront that pain on paper.

Within another two years, company-owned stores running the new system were processing 125–130k digital orders a day and had lifted same-store sales 6.2%—their best jump in four years.

Investors took notice.

By July 2017, just seven years after that fateful day on the beach, Panera’s twenty-year shareholder return had grown to 86x—far more than any other company in its class.

Premortem thinking swaps vague worry for action-based prevention, and—in Shaich’s words—“lets you fail on paper so you can succeed in real life.”

The next time you’re tempted to celebrate a pristine project plan, try killing it first. Your future self may thank you.